Weekly Update: December 17, 2014
Yearly Performance Review
Friends, believe it or not, 2014 is drawing to a close. That makes it the perfect time to recap our year.
Instead of our normal weekly update, I’m providing a performance review in today’s issue. Analyzing our trades from the past year will highlight the things we did right, and some of the things we did wrong.
So let’s get to it…
If you’ve been in this service since its inception (March 2014), you’ve received 41 trades (9 of which are still open). Of those 41, 12 trades achieved a maximum gain in the 100% to 200% range. (This includes our two most recent trades in ABX and OAS, which have already achieved max gains of 125% and 150% respectively.)
As a result, 29% of the trades we made this year have allowed you to at least double your money.
Not bad at all!
But there’s more…
Another 4 trades achieved maximum gains in the range of 200% to 300%. That means you had 4 opportunities to at least triple the money you risked on premium to enter the trade.
Furthermore, 1 trade achieved a maximum gain in the range of 300% to 400%. In other words, this trade gave you the opportunity to quadruple your money.
Yet another trade achieved a maximum gain in the 400% to 500% range. And finally, one trade ran to a spectacular gain of over 700%!
Add it up and you’ll find 19 of the 41 trades we made this year (46%) allowed you the opportunity to bag outsized gains in the range of 100% to 780%.
Now, you may be wondering why I’m using ranges.
To put it simply, I have no idea where you decided to take profits. Grouping our profitable trades into ranges just gives you an idea of what kind of gains you may have achieved.
While I provide profit targets with each trade, they’re merely a guide. The decision of where to collect profits is ultimately up to you. As a result, your performance may differ from what’s provided here.
Now, let’s take it a step further…
An additional 4 trades achieved maximum gains in the 50% to 99% range. And yet another 4 trades achieved gains of 20% to 49%. While these trades didn’t hit our profit targets, or our minimum 100% profit goal, they still gave you the opportunity to make money.
Maybe you profited, maybe you didn’t.
Either way, when you tally all this year’s winning trades, you’ll find 27 achieved a profit of at least 20%.
That’s an overall win rate of 66%.
Of course, that means we had some trades that didn’t work out. 14 trades never made it above a 20% gain. We’ll simply chalk all those up in the loss column.
What happened with these trades?
While the thesis was valid, the trades simply didn’t work out in our favor. Either an unforeseen factor sent the stock in the opposite direction than I expected, or the stock didn’t move in our intended direction quick enough.
Is there a way we can avoid these losses in the future?
While I have a goal of making each trade profitable (and hopefully to the tune of a 100% profit or more), not every trade is going to be a winner. It’s just a fact of life.
Anybody claiming a 100% win rate when trading the markets is full of hot air!
To sum it all up…
Overall, we’ve had a very strong year in the Options Profit Pipeline. And you can rest assured I’ll be doing all I can to make performance even better in 2015!
I strongly value your subscription and the trust you place in me to bring you top-notch option trading ideas in the commodity space.
With the Christmas holiday coming next week and the New Year’s holiday the week following, this is the last portfolio update you’ll get from me in 2014. I’ll be focusing my attention on friends and family the next few days. I hope you do the same.
However…
I do have one more trade going out before this weekend. So be sure to keep a close eye on your email inbox!
With that said, I want to wish you a Happy Holidays!
Let’s get to a few of our open position updates…
Portfolio Highlights
Just a quick note: I won’t update every open position every update. I focus on the positions with significant news or price movement.
. . . . Sandridge Energy (SD) and Silver Wheaton (SLW) Calls
We’re holding two open positions in the portfolio that expire this Friday- the Sandridge Energy December 19, 2014 $7 calls and the Silver Wheaton December 19, 2014 $25 calls.
These trades were issued in July and August and didn’t cooperate from the get go. Of course, conservative investors should have closed these trades at the risk control line to minimize losses.
Both these trade are officially closed.
. . . . Barrick Gold (ABX) February 20, 2015 $10.00 Puts
After a brief jump to the $12.50 area last week, ABX is tumbling to new 52-week lows this week. As I write, the gold producer is trading at $10.50. The recent drop has our $10 puts trading at a $0.74 bid, which is 105% gain from our entry at $0.36.
Remember, it doesn’t matter if you’re conservative or aggressive, you should always take some money off the table when a trade achieves a 100% gain.
What percentage of your position you decide to close is completely up to you!
With that said, our profit targets are at $10 and $9 in ABX. As a result, feel free to keep holding some of your put position for the possibility of further gains!
. . . . Oasis Petroleum (OAS) January 16, 2015 $13 Calls
Oasis is off to the races!
The Bakken producer is surging this week despite the inability of WTI crude to sustain a meaningful bounce. As I write, OAS is trading at $15.92. Thanks to the recent rally, our January 2015 $13 calls are trading at a $3.00 bid- that’s a 150% gain from our entry last Friday!
Don’t be afraid to take a partial profit since we’re up over 100%. At the same time, be willing to let a part of your position ride to our profit targets at $17 and $22.50 in OAS!
Until next time,
Justin Bennett
Remember, if you’d like to comment on how you’re doing in the service, or if you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to drop me an email at CustomerService@CommodityTradingResearch.com. I’d like to know how you’re doing!
Category: Commodity Trading
